AGP Executive Report

Microfinance Shake-Up in Nigeria: The NDIC has started taking over and liquidating 46 microfinance banks after the CBN revoked their licences on July 1, warning the public against any dealings with the affected institutions. Cross-Border Payments Push: Hong Kong’s HKMA urged banks to drive global yuan adoption with a six-point plan, including customised yuan products and incentive changes, while Vietnam and Singapore launched a cross-border QR service for real-time payments and automatic currency conversion. Banking Tech for MSMEs: ToneTag launched eKosha, a voice-enabled AI platform aimed at helping banks serve India’s 80m MSMEs via natural-language interactions, targeting lower servicing costs and higher cross-sell. Crypto Market Signals: Retail crypto participation looks thin, with Binance retail BTC inflows near record lows, even as Bitcoin rebounds above $60k; meanwhile, Metaplanet added 2,823 BTC to reach 43,000. Markets & Risk Watch: JPMorgan warned that crowded AI chip trades could trigger forced selling if volatility spikes. Investment Product Expansion (India): JioBlackRock said it plans more SIFs, its first ETFs, and outbound products via GIFT City over the next three years.

Nigeria Microfinance Shake-Up: The CBN revoked the operating licences of 46 microfinance banks, citing failures including insufficient assets, unapproved closures, inactivity, and weak capital. Deposit Protection: The NDIC has taken over as liquidator, starting orderly closure, takeover, verification, and insured payouts, while warning the public against any dealings with the closed banks. CBN Resolution Rules: The CBN also issued guidance capping suspensions of certain contract obligations to two business days during troubled-bank resolution, aiming to reduce uncertainty for counterparties. Digital Banking Push (Africa): Interswitch and Temenos signed a partnership for Interswitch to adopt Temenos’ cloud-native banking platform to expand digital banking access across Africa. SME Credit Strategy (Nigeria): Nombank plans to grow SME lending by using merchant transaction data from its payments platform to assess creditworthiness. Global Markets Watch: Investors looked ahead to US labour and manufacturing data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments, with rates and the dollar in focus. UK Retail Banking Branding: Lloyds will scrap the Halifax brand after 173 years, moving accounts to Lloyds as part of a portfolio simplification. Housing Planning (UK): Bradford Council refused a plan to build homes on a Green Belt site in Riddlesden, citing potential dangerous traffic conditions.

Retail Consolidation (UK): Lloyds Banking Group confirmed it will phase out the Halifax brand after 173 years, moving all Halifax customer accounts to Lloyds over 2027; customers won’t need to take action, with sort codes/account numbers staying the same and no job losses expected. Cross-Border Payments (India): NPCI and partners including HSBC India and J.P. Morgan Payments are rolling out real-time FX for overseas UPI transactions, aiming to make cross-border payments faster and more transparent. Digital Banking Partnerships: Razorpay and NPCI Bharat BillPay launched Banking Connect, a mobile-first way for businesses to link multiple banks through one integration. Wealth & Markets (Malaysia): HSBC Private Bank set year-end FBM KLCI targets around 1,830–1,850, pointing to earnings growth and selective AI/data-centre and semiconductor opportunities. Banking Stability (India): The RBI said India’s banking system remains resilient, but warned deposit competition and rising funding costs could pressure margins. Central Banking (Global): Kevin Warsh joined ECB’s Sintra forum alongside Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem as major central banks weigh inflation persistence against growth risks. AI & Banking Trust (Singapore): A study found near-total AI agreement on Singapore’s safest banks, with DBS, OCBC and UOB repeatedly named. Credit & Funding (US): FTI Consulting expanded and extended its revolving credit facility to $1.5bn, improving financial flexibility. Banking Tech (Africa): AEON Pay expanded into Zambia, integrating Airtel Money and MTN Mobile Money for instant settlement in ZMW.

Household lending costs: Finland’s Bank of Finland says average interest on household loans rose to 3.40% in May, with 89% of loans tied to Euribor and new drawdowns averaging 3.91%. Australia privacy probe: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called charges against two Ernst & Young graduates “appropriate” after alleged access to his confidential banking details. India banking expansion: Punjab & Sind Bank marked its 119th Foundation Day with new digital initiatives including a CBDC service and a digital gold loan facility. Stablecoin push: Visa, Stripe and 140+ partners back Open USD, aiming to undercut Tether and Circle with fee-free minting/redemption and business-friendly reserve economics. Forex-rigging case: South Africa’s top court cleared competition authorities to pursue rand manipulation claims against major banks including JPMorgan and HSBC. Cash still king in Nigeria: Nigeria’s currency outside banks hit N5.19tn in May (91.3% of circulation), underscoring persistent demand for cash. Payments fraud pressure: Chargebacks911 reports friendly fraud is rising, with 83.4% of enterprise merchants seeing increases. Central banks and gold: Surveys and commentary point to continued central-bank gold buying and plans to cut dollar holdings. Deutsche Bank exit from India: Deutsche Bank offloaded its India retail business to Kotak Mahindra Bank. Community impact: US states’ egg price-fixing settlement will send millions of eggs to food banks, including Wisconsin.

M&A in India: Kotak Mahindra Bank agreed to buy Deutsche Bank’s India retail, affluent private banking and wealth management business, taking on about Rs 29,000 crore in loans, Rs 16,000 crore in deposits and Rs 10,500 crore in AUM for ~150,000 customers, with closing targeted by Sept 2027. RBI Financial Stability: India’s banking system looks resilient, but the RBI flagged AI-enabled cyberattacks as the biggest near-term threat and warned AI stock valuations could trigger spillovers if markets correct sharply. NBFC stress test: RBI expects stressed assets at NBFCs to rise, with GNPA ratio projected up to 2.8% by March 2027 (baseline) and capital buffers thinning under adverse scenarios. Liquidity squeeze: India’s overnight call money rate jumped above the policy corridor ceiling for the first time this fiscal year as liquidity stayed in deficit. Regulatory protection: Pakistan’s SBP told banks not to freeze accounts without legal grounds and proper authorization, tightening customer safeguards. Enforcement/records: Ayodhya Police moved the Ram Temple donation scam probe into a financial audit phase, seeking five years of banking records from seven banks. Market hit (Nigeria): NGX slid again as panic selling erased about N2.36tn in market value, with banking and other sectors leading declines. Insurance liberalisation (India): IRDAI approved two proposals for 100% foreign ownership in general insurance vehicles, paving the way for BIMA Sugam later this year.

JPMorgan Succession: Reuters reports Jamie Dimon’s exit timeline is finally getting clearer, with insiders pointing to co-presidents Troy Rohrbaugh (consumer lead) or Doug Petno as likely successors, and Dimon potentially shifting to executive chair. Regulation & Consumer Protection (Bangladesh): The government will scrap Section 18(a) of the Bank Resolution Act, blocking former troubled-bank owners from regaining control while stressing depositor protection. Market Structure (Europe): Europe’s biggest banks, via AFME, urged regulators not to curb off-exchange trading, warning it could hurt liquidity and price-setting. Financial Conduct (NZ): The Commerce Commission secured more CCCFA responsible-lending settlements (ASB, TSB, Nelson Building Society) as the act transfers to the Financial Markets Authority. Digital Banking Innovation: Alkami highlights a Landmark Credit Union partnership that drove a 55x jump in business banking profiles. Wealth & Private Banking: A roundup of major banks’ Q1 2026 wealth management results shows JPMorgan’s strong fee and inflow momentum. Cyber & Fraud: Delhi Police arrested 10 in an interstate banking-fraud syndicate using malicious APKs to steal OTPs and credentials. Payments/Fintech: BNY adds USDC mint-and-burn for institutions, deepening stablecoin rails for custody and settlement. Macro/Policy: ECB’s Lagarde signaled a more gradual, “back to basics” approach using official rates as the main tool.

AI & Financial Stability: The BIS warns that hyperscalers’ AI spending—set to top $1T in 2025-26—could build vulnerabilities and make future shocks spread faster across markets. Central Bank Limits: UBS argues central banks can’t control most inflation swings, with food and oil driving much of the variation. Cybersecurity Risk: JPMorgan says cyber threats are now a bigger banking risk than credit, urging tougher resilience and liquidity stress tests. Policy & Rates: HSBC expects the Philippines’ BSP to hike again (to ~5.5% in 2026) as inflation overshoots; Kiwibank also adjusts mortgage and deposit rates. Banking Deals & Funding: Nigeria starts work on its first Eurobond since 2025, seeking advisers; India’s IIFCL plans a $1B foreign-currency loan plus talks for ~$400M from the ADB. Banking Market Moves: Atom Bank takeover chatter points to potential interest from building societies; Portrait Bank gets Florida’s charter to launch. Investing & Consumer Finance: HMRC flags £2,200 Child Trust Fund reunification taskforce with 11 banks; NSE warns against unregistered stock-tip operators. Corporate Tax Incentive: A proposed corporate tax cut would reward companies that route transactions through banking channels.

Digital Banking Upgrade: Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) rolled out an enhanced Corporate App with a new interface and faster access to business tools like account management, local and international transfers, payments, approvals, deposit monitoring and service requests in Arabic and English. Sovereign Wealth Repositioning: A survey of sovereign wealth funds and central banks managing about US$29T says investors are shifting toward energy and energy-transition infrastructure, with resilience now a “hard requirement” as geopolitical shocks and weaker bond diversification assumptions bite. Interest-Rate Risk Watch: New research using Italian supervisory data finds banks do hedge interest-rate risk with swaps, and tend to hedge more as rates rise—highlighting how derivatives can partially protect bond portfolios. Cyber & Fraud Pressure: Pakistan’s cybercrime complaints are surging, with tens of thousands logged and many victims reporting low conviction rates and under-reporting due to process fatigue. ATM Theft: Jamaica police are investigating a reported multi-million-cash robbery from a Scotiabank ATM service room in Portmore. Crypto Market Mood: Bitcoin slipped below $60,000 and is set for a weak quarter, while corporate bitcoin buyers like Strategy’s Michael Saylor continue to signal more accumulation. Payments & Compliance: Nigeria’s banks industry group urged stronger QR and digital payment adoption and better, unified communication during service disruptions. Wealth Flows to Singapore: DBS and OCBC pulled in US$77B in net new HNW money in 2025, with wealth management fees rising sharply in early 2026.

RBI Bank Holiday Watch (India): Banks will shut on specific regional dates next week, with July Sundays (July 5, 12, 19, 26) also closed; online banking and UPI remain available even when branches are shut. Bangladesh Cash-Deposit Push: BNP MP AM Mahbub Uddin Khokon proposed temporarily scrapping Tk 500 and Tk 1,000 notes, giving people two months to deposit and “legalise” cash via a fee, arguing cash is sitting at home due to eroded trust. Philippines Credit Resilience: BSP says banks are well-positioned for shocks, citing liquidity, capital buffers and contained credit risks after Fitch flagged higher impairments. AI Policy Debate (Nepal): Nepal Rastra Bank officials said monetary policy should support the government’s budget, while experts urged a longer-term vision and tighter coordination with fiscal policy. Crypto Market Stress Signals: Reports flagged nearly 50,000 BTC moving to exchanges at a loss, pointing to short-term holder stress as Bitcoin defends key support near $59K–$60K. HDFC Governance Dispute (India): Ex-HDFC chairman Atanu Chakraborty denied failing to cooperate with an external legal review, saying he repeatedly requested the inquiry’s terms and legal basis.

UK Market Mood: London drifted lower as oil slid and tech sold off; investors also digested hotter US inflation data, keeping rate worries alive. Eurozone Inflation Watch: The ECB survey showed short-term inflation expectations easing (12 months to 3.5%), while longer-term views stayed anchored. UK Retail Earnings Radar: Sainsbury’s shares rose ahead of its Q1 update; UBS expects modest grocery growth but flags cost pressure and Argos drag. Banking Tech Upgrade (Nigeria): FCMB rolled out a revamped mobile app with rewards, virtual cards, mutual fund access, and in-app support. Crypto Consumer Protection (US): San Antonio approved mandatory bilingual fraud warning signs at crypto kiosks after $39m in scam losses, targeting a repeat “emergency” call script. Credit Stress (South Korea): NPLs near KRW18tn as banks increasingly sell bad loans to distressed-debt firms. AI Risk Management: A BFSI-focused piece argues AI is boosting fraud detection and decision-making, but governance remains the sticking point. RBI Holiday Check (India): Banks face limited closures next week (notably July 5), so customers should verify local calendars. Digital FX Settlement: Chainlink was cited as middleware for DTCC’s Collateral AppChain and tied to Project Pangea FX settlement efforts. Crypto Market Volatility: XRP saw a sharp derivatives deleveraging with long liquidations spiking, while analysts point to potential July rebound signals.

Fed/Markets: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a tougher stance on inflation with a short message that rattled Wall Street expectations. Banking Leadership: JPMorgan’s succession race narrowed as Marianne Lake retired and co-presidents Troy Rohrbaugh and Doug Petno were elevated, leaving fewer women candidates in the pipeline. UK Regulation: The FCA moved to tighten rules on investment trusts after Saba’s raids, aiming to close conflicts of interest around asset-manager nominations. Aviation/Geopolitics: Heathrow warned the Iran conflict is hitting travel demand, cutting profit forecasts by nearly £150m as Middle East passenger numbers fall. Oil Volatility: Crude swung sharply after US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, with traffic improving but volatility staying elevated. Crypto Policy (HK): Hong Kong’s CARF bill is advancing to require crypto platforms to collect and share tax-residency data ahead of regulated stablecoins. Crypto/On-chain Security: Investigators linked KelpDAO and Humanity Protocol exploits to the same attackers via shared laundering wallets. Tokenization/Markets: Securitize is set for a NYSE debut after raising about $400m via a SPAC, targeting growth in tokenized assets. AI & Jobs: A new US nonprofit, RAISE US, backed by bipartisan founders, plans $500m+ in training pilots across states to help workers adapt to AI-driven job shifts.

Fed Watch: JPMorgan’s Bruce Kasman warns inflation is stickier than markets expect, raising the odds the Fed may need to push rates higher before year-end. Crypto & Markets: Bitcoin hovers near $58k–$60k as ETF outflows, leverage flushes, and tech-stock weakness weigh on risk appetite. Digital Assets Lending: Aave founder Stani Kulechov says the protocol will expand from crypto-only lending into securities-backed loans and securities lending, aiming to bridge DeFi with Wall Street’s trillions. Banking Tech & Risk: RBI is moving toward tighter AI governance for banks and financial firms, including a “kill switch” concept and human oversight requirements. JPMorgan Succession: JPMorgan promotes Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh to co-presidents, sharpening the race to succeed Jamie Dimon. Local Impact: Texas sees fewer SNAP qualifiers, increasing pressure on food banks and pantries. Corporate Finance (India): PNB signs a loan agreement with Plaza Wires; DCX Systems lands ₹431.83 crore in purchase orders; Indo Tech Transformers approves ₹360 crore CAPEX to expand transformer capacity.

Yuan Clearing Expansion: China’s central bank authorized Standard Bank and ICBC to clear renminbi across Africa as “Renminbi Clearing Bank of Africa,” giving firms direct access to China’s onshore system and boosting yuan use in trade. Rates Watch: A Reuters poll says the Fed is likely to hold its benchmark rate for the rest of 2026, despite inflation above target, as economists weigh energy-driven uncertainty. Market Mood: Tech-led selloffs hit Europe and Asia, with Apple’s price hikes and semiconductor worries dragging sentiment; South Korea’s Kospi triggered a trading halt. Crypto Compliance Shock: Binance says it will stop serving EU customers after a MiCA licence application was rejected in Greece, with users told to withdraw funds ahead of the July 1 deadline. Energy Storage Push: Ofgem picked 16 long-duration electricity storage projects for possible support, aiming to cut network strain and improve energy security. Banking Tech & Cyber: IBM and Red Hat expanded Project Lightwell with Palo Alto Networks to speed open-source patching and add network-layer “virtual patch” protection. Payments Partnership: U.S. Bank teamed with GigSafe to enable push-to-card instant payouts for delivery workers via embedded payments. Corporate/Banking Deals: XPS Group bought Austin Professional Resourcing for £3.3m cash plus £10m earn-outs; Wise reported higher revenue and customer activity; Heathrow cut its FY passenger forecast amid Iran-war uncertainty.

JPMorgan Succession Watch: Jamie Dimon will likely stay on as CEO for at least three more years, even as JPMorgan reshuffles leadership—promoting Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh to co-presidents and setting up a narrower successor race after Marianne Lake’s retirement. Macro & Markets: US stocks finished mixed after hotter PCE inflation, with the Fed’s preferred gauge showing the fastest core rise since 2023, keeping rate expectations in focus. Banking Regulation: The FDIC proposed cutting deposit insurance fund fees (with a higher “small bank” threshold up to $30bn in assets), aiming to free capital for smaller lenders. Digital Banking & Fraud: RBI moves to strengthen customer protection in electronic banking fraud, including “shadow reversal” rules and more time/relief for some cases. Crypto & Payments Risk: Coinbase’s Base network suffered a roughly two-hour outage after an invalid block triggered a consensus halt; funds were reported secure. Islamic Finance: Bangladesh’s central bank and researchers urged stronger Shariah-compliant liquidity tools and capacity building to support Islamic banking growth. Wealth & Institutional Services: HSBC Qatar opened its new headquarters wealth centre in Msheireb Downtown Doha, expanding Premier and high-net-worth advisory. Fintech & Data: IQ-EQ appointed Wyn James as Head of Asset Owners for APAC, signaling deeper focus on sovereign wealth funds, pensions, insurers and family offices. DeFi Cooling: DeFi total value locked reportedly fell about 39% in 2026 as yields cool and risk appetite drops.

Fed Rate Outlook: A new Iran-related macro shock is pushing back the “rate cut” timeline, with markets now leaning toward higher-for-longer as energy and food costs feed inflation. Banking Resilience: The Fed says all 32 of the biggest U.S. banks cleared the annual stress test, with capital buffers holding up even in a severe recession scenario. RBI Rules & AI Governance: India’s central bank is tightening how banks handle AI and digital fraud, including draft AI safety and accountability requirements and rules that shift more loss responsibility to banks. Liquidity Moves (China): China’s PBOC ran a 500bn-yuan MLF to support banking liquidity, adding short-term tools to keep credit flowing. Cross-Border Finance: India’s state development lenders are lining up about $1.5bn in debut dollar borrowings under an RBI overseas window. Tech Meets Finance: Micron’s strong results are reigniting AI infrastructure optimism, while a new “Cordyceps” flaw highlights how CI/CD security gaps can threaten financial-grade software supply chains. Deal Flow: JSW Green Mobility invested in an EV mobility platform, signaling continued capital rotation into infrastructure-led mobility.

Economic Statecraft: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out five principles for the Trump administration’s economic statecraft, stressing domestic strength in sectors like semiconductors and AI. Crypto Regulation: Binance withdrew its Greece MiCA license bid but says it will stay in Europe via another EU country, as the July 1 licensing deadline nears. Policy & CBDC: Trump refused to sign a bipartisan U.S. housing bill, stalling a four-year Federal Reserve CBDC ban and putting the CLARITY Act timeline in doubt. Banking Stress Tests: The Fed’s 2026 stress tests found big banks can handle a severe recession with capital staying above minimums, though critics warn the scenarios may miss future risks. RBI Funding Moves: India’s RBI relaxations are pushing banks to lean harder on treasury desks, FCNR(B) deposit pricing, and GIFT City IFSC units to mobilize and deploy overseas funds more efficiently. AI in Finance: HSBC’s survey says AI is losing out to humans in key wealth-management moments, while banks face rising pressure to adopt AI safely. M&A & Credit: Colony Bankcorp agreed to buy First Reliance Bancshares in a deal aimed at expanding its Southeast footprint. Market Watch: Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 forecast for China humanoid robot shipments to 50,000, signaling faster commercial adoption.