Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - January 2026

The January 2026 DMP survey was conducted between 9-23 January 2026 and received 2,064 responses.

Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth was 3.7% in the three months to January, unchanged from the three months to December. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.5% in the three months to January, 0.1 percentage points lower than firms reported in the three months to December. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to slightly fall over the next year, based on three-month averages.

Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2% in the three months to January. The corresponding measure for three-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations was 2.9% in the three months to January, which remained unchanged relative to the three months to December.

Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.4% in the three months to January, unchanged from the three months to December. Expected year-ahead wage growth fell slightly, by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6% in the three months to January. This implies that firms expect their wage growth to decline by 0.8 percentage points over the next 12 months.

Firms reported that realised annual employment growth was -0.6% in the three months to January, down from -0.4% in the three months to December. Expectations for employment growth over the next year improved slightly, rising by 0.2 percentage points to -0.2% in the three months to January.